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Risk Management solutions for Managing FX, Interest Rate Risk and Trade finance for Exporters and Importers

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Invest/Trade in USDINR and other currencies through our Quant-based Managed Accounts

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Strategy Outlook of the day

Currency Outlook of the Day - 19 November 2019

  • The relief on restrictions for US companies to do business with Huawei which was set to expire today is likely to be extended another 90 days by the US government. This keeps doors for trade talks open and should continue to support risk sentiment. 
  • After a slew of recent data including retail sales, industrial production, export growth which pointed towards a systemic slowdown in the Chinese economy, the PBoC has responded by slashing the 7 day Reverse repo rate by 5bps. This is the first cut in four years and also makes a LPR (loan prime rate) cut on Wednesday and RRR (Reserve requirement ratio for banks) cut in the near future more likely.





















Option Analytics - 6 November 2019

As per current market scenario, we suggest importers to go for Seagull Option strategy (December 2019 Expiry).

Option

Strike Price

Action

Premium

Call

71.00

Buy

0.66

Put

70.00

Sell

0.11

Call

72.00

Sell

0.26

Premium to be paid

        0.29

Below are the different scenarios for the given strategy. 

Case I:  If the USD INR pair expires below or at 70.00 on maturity, then the importer’s rate would be hedged at 70.29 which is far better than the current forward rate (71.29).

Case II:  If the USD INR pair expires between 70.00 – 71.00 on maturity, then the importer’s rate would be hedged at Spot + 29 Paisa. For eg: If the USDINR pair expires at 70.50 then net realization rate would be (70.50 + 0.29) = 70.79. 

Case III: If the USD INR pair expires between 71.00 - 72.00 on maturity, then the importer’s rate would be hedged at 71.29 which is equivalent to current forward rate (71.29)

Case IV: If the USD INR pair expires above 72.00 on maturity, then the importer’s rate would be hedged at spot – 0.71. For eg: If the USDINR pair expires at 73.00 then net realization rate would be (73.00 – 0.71) = 72.29.

Chart of the Day - USDINR

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USDINR pair has been trading around 71.00 mark from last few trading sessions. The pair needs to break on either side of the consolidation range of 70.60 - 71.30 for further direction. Sideways price action is expected today in anticipation of low trading volumes.

IFA Global Proprietary model based on various techno-fundamental factors suggests USDINR Outlook for given timeframe. The index for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested strategies.

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Our Take on the Market

IFA

CNBC Awaaz Pehla Sauda Mr. Abhishek Goenka IFA Global

18 Sep 2019

Interview of Mr. Abhishek Goenka - CEO & Founder, IFA Global sharing his insights on the Rupee.

Demand side vs. Supply side economics - Debate Resurfaces |

The Rupee has been spooked by a combination of global and domestic factors. It has depreciated nearly 3.5% in a matte...

Based on my experience of managing over 1000 clients over the last 2 decades, here are the "9 common mistakes to avoid as a treasurer" | Abhishek Goenka

Based on my experience of managing over 1000 clients over the last 2 decades, here are the "9 common mistakes to avoi...

A break below 72.90/$ could push rupee to a new all time low | Abhishek Goenka

The level of 72.90 is a crucial resistance for the USD/INR pair, break of which could push it to a new all-time high....

Low Volatility Regime likely to continue in Rupee | IFA Global

Rupee has been trading in an extremely narrow range 68.30-69.20 against the US Dollar for quite some time. Implied vo...

What is making rupee stronger against the USD? Here are 4 possible scenarios for 6 months | Abhishek Goenka

We may see some volatility on account of domestic election results in the short term but do not ...

IFA Blogs

We put together our take on the major domestic and global factors driving risk sentiment over the medium term with special emphasis on political developments, monetary policy outlook and fiscal policy implications.

Contact us for a No Obligation Trial Consultation

Trial will include:

  1. Access to our world class research and data analytics
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Client Testimonials

Mr. Vijay Agarwal

- Chairman, Creative Textile Mills Pvt Ltd, Mumbai

We have been associated with IFA Global for 4 years now. I can only tell that they have taken away a lot of my burden from foreign exchange. Previously, whenever I used to do; half of my time would go into analysing whether the market will go up or down. Now I am free, these guys are taking care of it very well. Transparent, Honest and Hard Working, can’t get better than this.

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Mr. Vanjinath

- Managing Director, Cotton Concepts Pvt Ltd , Coimbatore

I have been associated with IFA Global for few years and have got great service so far. I am filled with a lot of information which helps me in the industry. The team has been professional and helped me in every single bit to understand how the market works. Especially when we deal with our own business, we do not understand the nuances of how the forex market works. The team has really broken down every single thing that is required when it comes to how the market performs or how we could utilise the benefits of forex in our business.

Right from bringing down my bank interest rates to negotiating with banks in terms of all conversions & rates; everywhere they have given me benefits in business. And, that is where I see them add value. I would recommend IFA Global for all their support.

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Mr. Senthil Kumar

- Chairman, BKS Textiles Pvt Ltd, Coimbatore

Since the last few years, frankly speaking we have forgotten what we are supposed to do about our foreign currency transactions. We have left everything to IFA Global. We are comfortable and can devote our time to other things. We also feel by large we have made reasonable profits on FX transactions. Service wise, it has been a very good experience. Without asking, we have received the right advice at the right time so that we can remain in our business as competitive as we can. Happy with their services and would like to add & avail more services like Treasury Audit etc.

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Mr. Shailesh  Shah

- Executive Director, Sonic Biochem Extractions Ltd, Indore

We have been associated with IFA Global for more than 5 years. We are exporters and happy to inform that every morning we talk on business and we are able to make good decisions on Forex. We have good relationship with the firm and the people of the firm. Able to discuss and share our business as well as personal issues. People in the firm are excellent at large.

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Treasury Elite (TE) is a not-for-profit forum conceptualized exclusively for entrepreneurs, treasury and finance professionals to facilitate sharing of knowledge and information pertaining to every aspect of treasury management.

Treasury Elite events present an ideal opportunity to its participants to network, interact and discuss the best practices being followed in treasury management.

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Treasury Elite Conclave - 23rd February 2018

Structural Reforms in Indian Economy: Is the growth push inevitable?

location Boundary Hall, MCA Club, BKC

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Treasury Elite Conclave - 18th August 2017

Road Ahead: Changing landscape of India INC

location Boundary Hall, MCA Club, Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai.

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Treasury Elite Conclave – February 2017

Budget 2017 – Impact on Financial Markets

location Boundary Hall, MCA Club, BKC

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Treasury Elite Conclave – October 2016

Financial Sector Reforms: Role of Markets, Institutions and Regulators

location Boundary Hall, MCA Club, BKC

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Treasury Elite Conclave – August 2016

Global Financial Markets and Credit Scenario 2016-17

location Boundary Hall, MCA Club, BKC

Why Us

2005

Founding Year

950+

Clients Served

25000+

Network Within Industry

20 Billion USD

FX Exposure Under Management

56

Cities Served

22% CAGR

Annual FX Returns

Over the last decade and a half, IFA Global has become a trusted name in delivering Treasury Solutions. We engage with clients to evolve a treasury strategy and streamline treasury operations, resulting in quantifiable monetary benefits and a sustainable competitive advantage. We have catered to over 950 clients from 40 different sectors. We have engaged with entrepreneurial startups, SMEs, Public Limited Companies and Multinational Corporations. We understand the expectations and set of challenges unique to each one of them. During the course of these interactions, IFA has developed a repository of tacit domain knowledge.

We have an experienced team comprising of Economists, Technical Analysts, Quant Strategists, Trade Finance Professionals, and Ex-Bankers. At IFA, we believe Research is the backbone of our advisory and wealth management functions and therefore, the endeavor over the years has been to strengthen our research capability. We advise clients based on our proprietary quant-based techno-fundamental model. This prevents behavioral biases from creeping in. We believe our Algo and Quant-based focus on delivering solutions sets us apart from the competition.

When it comes to views on the FX markets, IFA has been one of the most sought-after names across print and electronic media. We believe in maintaining a thoroughly professional relationship with our clients. Every effort is made to preserve the confidentiality of data shared with us. We are an FX Partner You Can Trust.